Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Lindsey Williams Future Economic Collapse of America
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is used by economists and stock traders alike as a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity. The index tracks in US dollars and measures global supply and demand for commodity shipments among bulk carriers including raw materials like lumber, coal, metallic ores, and grains. What makes this particular measurement so distinct from others, according to economic Howard Simmons, is that the BDI “is totally devoid of speculative content” because “people don’t book freighters unless they have cargo to move.” The head of China’s Dagong Rating Agency, Guan Jianzhong, had some very blunt words for the world’s investors and policymakers overnight. As ITAR-TASS reports, Jianzhong warned , “the world economy may slip into a new global financial crisis in the next few years… that is even worse than in 2008.” “As distinct from Russia, the scope of crediting in these countries exceeded the potential for the production of goods and created a bubble.
When cargo is moving the price to move that cargo rises. During the boom-times of the mid 2000′s the Baltic Dry Index hit historical record highs of over $8000 for charter higher rates. It promptly collapsed under $1000 into mid-2008, just ahead of the stock market crash. What you’re about to see may shock you if you’re of the opinion that an economic recovery has taken hold.Not only has the index lost 90% of its value in the last several months, but according to Zero Hedge it is just a day or two away from its all-time record lows. Where is the global economy headed in the next few months?
If The Baltic Dry Index is any guide, it’s about to implode. And the collapse just keeps going… since Thanksgiving, The Baltic Dry has fallen on 43 or the 47 days, down over 60% from the “China growth is back and all-is-well” hope-filled days of late October (when Jim Cramer “stressed the importance of watching the Baltic Dry Freight Index,” as his bullish thesis confirmation). At 569, The Baltic Dry is inching ever closer to what will be the lowest level ever (554 on 7/31/1986) for the global shipping cost indicator… One or two more days like this and it will be the all-time low… “Developed countries, including the US and the EU, remain the main consumers. But these countries develop only if there is consumer demand while the main potential for this consumption is based on borrowings. The US, the EU and Japan are increasing consumption through growth in crediting, which poses a risk,” he said. “The current crisis in Russia is caused by Western countries’ sanctions rather than internal factors. If we look at the US and the EU countries, their crises were caused by internal and not external factors,” the president of China’s Dagong rating agency said.
It should be obvious, despite the machinations from governments and central banks the world over, that the economy is coming to a standstill. The collapse in the oil price has certainly pushed it along, but the problems go much deeper.
According to many contrarian analysts we’re so far gone that at this point nothing will stop it: “We are setting up for a collapse that is going to be worse than 1929, and it’s going to come sometime within the next two years. It could come as soon as the next couple of months, but it is going to happen, and there’s nothing that is going to stop it.”
Going forward we will see continued volatility with wild price swings for all asset classes, including gold and oil. prepare a backup plan things are going to be horrific. It’s imminent. Get ready. The process of collapse is neither sudden nor smooth. systems decay and then drop to a lower energy level, where they are stable until further decay causes the next drop to an even lower level. With the price of oil hovering around $44 and U.S. oil inventories at record highs the general consensus is that the economy will soon see a boost in consumer spending as Americans will take their gas savings and spend it at retail stores.