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Monday, September 14, 2020
๐UK Economy in Freefall - the EU Faces the Worst Economic Crisis in its history GDPs Plunging
๐UK Economy in Freefall - the EU Faces the Worst Economic Crisis in its history GDPs Plunging
The European Union faces the worst economic crisis in its history.
The UK GDP fell by 22.1% , France -18.9%,Italy -17.1%,Germany -11.9%. In comparaison , Canada GDP fell by 12% , Japan 7.6% , India -9% .
10% is a recession, 20% or more is a depression, always has been, by definition. The decline in Britain was a lot worse than in other major European countries. Worse than even hard-hit France and Spain. It was double the roughly 10% declines of the U.S. and Germany. China, meanwhile, has already returned to positive growth.
UK economy plunges into the deepest recession since records began.
The worst of any G7 nation. And that's after just six months. The worst is still to come.
Cooronaa, Brexit, and of course, lousy management from the government. Brace yourselves.
We are going to have depression. A depression made far worse by politicians' incompetence and lack of leadership on the pandemic, and the massive debt and market bubble caused by the Fed, and the tax cut for the ridiculously rich, which did not trickle-down.
UK is in peril with the disastrous EU exit. Thousands of high-paying white-collar jobs left for the continent while the rural bumpkins cheer. Johnson has no trade deals to replace. The pound value is dropping. Large companies have canceled plans for expansion in the UK because of Brexit. Situation not unlike the failing economy in the States. The latest Bank of England forecast says the British economy is facing its biggest annual decline for 100 years.
This means absolutely nothing to working people, it's been a permanent recession, and millions are still suffering from the 2008 recession, so another one makes little difference. There have been very few good times economically for ordinary people, and when there has been a boom, people end up in massive debt, inflation, and asset prices go up, and all of the money trickles up to the people that deserve it the least. Printing money is a stealth tax devaluing people's wages and savings. We have had a crisis of under-consumption since the 2008 crash. The current generation is actually the first generation in history to be economically worse off than their parents, and the result is that they haven't got the money to spend on consumer goods because austerity had forced us to pay off the public debt that the banks caused when they got bailed out after blowing up the universe in 2008.After decades of private debt-driven growth beginning in the late 1970s and early 80s.
An economy that manufactures and produces little of value apart from armies of recruitment consultants and research analysts.
A recent survey found that one-third of companies planned to cut jobs by the end of September. Even with the furlough program, the British labor market recorded its largest drop in employment since 2009 in the second quarter.
And it will get so so much worse. Several companies in the City are finally packing it up and moving to the EU just in this past week. And of course, that is on top of the dozens of other companies moving out of the City over the past year. They tell me they see nothing good coming out of BoJo’s great trade deals as zero good is on the horizon on that score. They tell me, and many are or were Conservatives, that BoJo’s inflated view of U.K. importance will be his and the country’s ruination.
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There was a time when the Commonwealth could be relied on as a family and would be sympathetically disposed to the UK. Not anymore. The weak influence of the UK turned to mockery and now derision. Several EU countries have more traction in terms of credibility and desirability as a trading partner. Even soft exports like education face stiff competition from the likes of Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. The Britts shooting themselves in one foot may be an accident. To then pull the gun to shoot the other out of petulance is insanity.
The "Made in Britain” is now regarded as a toxic warning label and antipodeans. Most citizens of the commonwealth will far more willingly buy Japanese/Korean/Taiwanese/Chinese products than touch anything from the old country.
The idea that commonwealth countries are waiting with open arms to welcome Britain back into trading agreements 45 years after Britain caused economic and social turmoil by unceremoniously dumping them all to join the EU shows just how delusional the average Brexiter is.
They might be willing to trade, but it's on their terms - and team Great Britain couldn't run to the airport fast enough when India laid out its conditions.
And now here comes the new season of Brexit drama. The UK now threatens to override the Brexit divorce deal.
BoJo prorogued parliament to get the bill through, fought teeth and claw, and needed court action to have the deal voted upon. He then, after forced to return to parliament, only allowed three days for parliament to discuss the bill and removed the whip of 36 Tory MPs who had issues with it. He knew full well what he was doing. And he knows what he is doing now.
The UK has been playing a game with the EU for a long time now. The end game is a NO DEAL Brexit.
Any country in the EU sells more to the EU than to the UK, even Ireland. So for every single member of the EU, the single market is more important than a trade deal with the UK. This means any trade undermining the integrity of the common market is a net negative for the as a whole EU and all the member countries.
The EU has (unlike the UK) been preparing for the possibility of a no-deal Brexit for years. It's also made it clear that it is not willing under any circumstances to give the UK the benefits of EU membership once it is not a member: they're willing to cut a deal, but it will be a worse deal. While they don't want a no-deal scenario, that scenario is still preferable to giving the UK freebies. Yet Boris Jonson still feigns surprise that the EU isn't willing to negotiate on aspects it has clearly said are non-negotiable. The EU has to give the UK a worse deal as a non-member than they got as a member. The member states of the EU - who have to individually ratify any agreement with any single member being able to scuttle the whole thing - simply won't tolerate anything else.
I suppose the UK can ask to open new negotiations at any point in time, and the EU will politely and professionally agree to talk.
However, if the UK insists on being intransigent, then nothing much will change for either side.
One might say the same about the EU being obstinate, but then the EU has always stated their case and requirements from the very beginning. Additionally, the EU has suggested various options that the UK has consistently refused to consider or negotiate.
It's very different for the UK. Without any clear definition of “Brexit,” the UK has kept shifting the goalposts even now, and even after signing the “oven-ready” Withdrawal Agreement. All the UK has done since signing is trying to welsh on core points in this solemn international pact.
Since the UK demonstrated such bad faith, it's also now a matter of how much the EU cares about the UK, and the evidence suggests that it's not a lot.
Now with Covid-19, the EU has more pressing problems. The UK leaving now isn't really such a huge concern, and besides, there isn't much the EU really wants from the UK that is not replaceable from within or from their new trading partners. And in a post-recovery environment, it makes much more economic sense to source and supply from internal markets and countries with Free Trade Agreements with the EU.
So whatever happens, the UK is going to be dining in the servants' quarters, called once in a while, to help bring the next course to the proper dining table. And despite what the rancid media says, the truth is the UK industry would be delighted to serve the EU because there are not many other countries who seem to even know what the UK is about these days. All they see is what all maths models see: a resource irrevocably destined for a decline, like an out-of-the-money option with time running out and the market price moving ever further away from the strike
From atop seat at the dining table of the largest trade bloc in the world. The UK will be roughly reduced to feeding off the crumbs from the table, a bit like when my dog begs at mealtimes. That's about all the UK can negotiate from the EU from next year onwards unless the UK sees sense very soon.
Ready for Brexit?
The Tories have been ready for Brexit since before the referendum - ready for their no-deal Brexit that will make them huge personal fortunes when the economy crashes out, and ready to continue stuffing their taxable wealth into off-shore tax havens.
Is the country, or the 99% of the UK that isn’t already wealthy investors, ready for Brexit? Ready to pay significantly more in the supermarket for the same goods they have now, or ready to save a few quid on chlorinated or highly corn-syrup saturated industrially produced “food” from America? Ready to see more broken Tory promises? They aren’t ready for no-deal Brexit no. A tiny percentage of crooks will make enough money to sail through the coming depression with ease. The rest of the peasants? Who knows. We’ll find out. No doubt, the Brexit congregation will believe whatever lies the clergy of politicians will dispense.
The purpose of Brexit was to destroy the UK economy and put millions out to work. All the major investors in the UK Conservative Party and Boris Johnson have shorted the pound, which they hope will collapse when Brexit occurs (or they will lose a lot of money).
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